WHY WE WILL FAIL - John Wawrzonek

II. Why We Will Fail

1. Climate changes are already very big and coming faster and bigger. If we stopped all emissions today the Earth would continue to warm for thousands of years and reach unacceptable temperatures in a few hundred.

2. The full effect of the last 20 years of emissions has not been felt.

3. Most people are not experiencing sigificant problems. Indeed I have been told that the warm weather is welcome.

4. Technical discussions of one or two degrees C do not seem significant to the greater population.

5. The general disconnect to what this will mean in the long run affects public media seriousy, partly because of politics and greatly because science ia poorly covered in public media and scientists are not equipped to get though the disconnect. It reminds me of Churchills frustration before World War II.

6. Negative emissions technology could significantly ameliorate the damage but it needs major, committed and expensive development and that is not happening and is unlikely to happen any time soon.

7. This is a race against time and, for all intents and purposes, the runners, namely supression efforts and negative emissions research, are far from the starting line.

8. Politics is swinging far to the right and with that less attention is paid to global warming.

9. The United States is moving backwards by supporting coal and suspending environmental regulations.

10. If the suppression of emissions is not successful the rise in temperature could become exponential. And the fundamental issue is not whether it will, but that it could and we will have deaths by the billions. It strikes me as if a giant hammer shattered the Hope Diamond into thousands of pieces.

11. Every minute that goes by makes remedy more difficult and if we "get it" and realize what we will loose the regret of those left living will be profound beyond comprehension.

12. THERE IS A CONFLUENCE OF FORCES, ATTITUDES AND PSYCHOLOGY reinforcing each other that make a rational, coordinated, fair, just effort virtually impossible. The conservative, irrational, inhumane slide conspires to make belief in humanism, science and the unity of humanity nearly impossible. This in the face of a climate system that is on the edge and even, without all the other forces, possibly over the edge in the perfect storm of perfect storms.

13. Failure in this case is likely most serious in sea level rise, but also in disruption of ocean currents, higher temperatures allowing for more insects and disease and a great impact on food production. If greenhouse gasses are not reduced enough and quickly enough then approximately eight feet of sea level rise is likely by the end of the century and far more in centuries to come. This will result eventually in the flooding of most of the world's coastal cities. The costs of dealing with this will be in the hundreds of trillians of dollars either because enormous dike systems must be built or the cities abandoned and reconstructed elsewhere. And if it should not happen at this level in 2100 it will simply happen later. There will be no escaping it.

14. I have witnessed or been part of or have read extensively about disasterous situations, the most incredible being World War II, fought on two sides of the world with some of the most vicious men in history: Hitler, Moussolini, and Stalin in charge. Yet we were blessed by Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill as leaders. Additionally, baring a runaway nuclear war, it was a catastrophe we could recover from. Now we have Trump and Pruitt, a conservative drift world wide and climate change a permanent disaster from which recovery is not posssible, for it will have caused monumental damage to the very Earth on which we live.

Powered by SmugMug Log In