III. THE BEARS IN THE BUSHES - John Wawrzonek

4. The Bear in the Bushes

They are just waiting until we walk by when they love to surprise us. It's part of the adventure of science.

So here are some examples of bears: 1. Methane is discovered in the sea bed where no one expected to find it;
2. The ocean is found to contaim 40% more heat than previously thought making computer models inaccurate; or (I made this one up) 3. The average reflectivity spectrum of desert sand is different from expectations.

When large sums are deemed necessary to deal with the problem, responses are that it will hurt the economy, take away from other needs and stress resources. However, it is not understood by leaders and the public that, in the absence of major efforts now, the consequences in the future will be far worse, with potentially billions of lives lost. Coastal areas, where half the world's population lives, will be under water due to sea level rise.

The argument that spending money on preparation will hurt the economy is nonsense. World War II was an exercise in making expensive machines and then trashing them. The money pump worked. The ideology that argues for low taxes is nonsense too. It simply means we make the rich richer.

A full bore attack on the climate will be scientific, manufacturing and construction capacity stretched to their limits and most of all we would have to learn what truth and reciprocity mean.

Most significantly, as Mayor Bloomberg stated there will soon come a time (if it has not already arrived) where temperature increase will be permanently out of control so that no effort in emission supression or negative emission will be sufficient to deal with the problem. Delay is giving time for the millions of square miles of tundra to melt and release methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide. The methane results in a positive feedback loop where the rate of warming increases making further supression of emission incapable of stopping temperature rise.

At present scientists are stressing the great impact if we do not meet the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C. It is vertiually certain, that we will not meet this target nor even stay within 2.0°C. The temperature will continue to rise with unimaginable death and destruction.

From the graph in the previous section, based on an extraolation of temperature beyond 2017, it appears that the inflection point Mayor Bloomberg spoke of is occuring now. To begin to control temperature within 10-20 years will require mobilization of the world's resources comparable to that of World War II. Subsequent pages will discuss the nature of this "mobilization."

What does this mean?

1. Climate change is over the president's head. He does not understand it so he will continue to do the worst he can.

2. What does "demise" mean if Trump gets his way?

3. Something engineers call "thermal runaway." The planet warms enough to melt millions of square miles of tundra releasing methane.

4. Methane is over 30 times as powerful as carbon dioxide so it accelerates the warming releasing more methane.

5.The earth's temperature will run out of control and eventually it may become completely uninhabitable. At minimum disease, starvation, deadly heat, sea level rise will destroy any semblance of the life we have today

6. Is there an alternative?

0.0000..0.....00000000000000000000.0000000007. Yes. Fully implement a practical version of the green new deal. If done soon enough and carefully enough it could return the planet to life as it was 20 years ago while increasing prosperity and coastal property values.

8. History will judge us by which direction we take.

"The president’s advisers amplify his disregard. At the meeting of the eight-nation Arctic Council this month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dismayed fellow diplomats by describing the rapidly warming region as a land of “opportunity and abundance” because of its untapped reserves of oil, gas, uranium, gold, fish and rare-earth minerals. The melting sea ice, he said, was opening up new shipping routes. “That is one of the most crude messages one could deliver,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who served as the NATO ambassador under George W. Bush.

"Outside the United States, climate scientists had long given up on the White House being anything but on outlier in policy. But they worry about the loss of the American government as a source for reliable climate research. “It is very unfortunate and potentially even quite damaging that the Trump administration behaves this way,” said Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “There is this arrogance and disrespect for scientific advancement — this very demoralizing lack of respect for your own experts and agencies.”

What does this mean?

1. Climate change is over the president's head. He does not understand it so he will continue to do the worst he can.

2. What does "demise" mean if Trump gets his way?

3. Something engineers call "thermal runaway." The planet warms enough to melt millions of square miles of tundra releasing methane.

4. Methane is over 30 times as powerful as carbon dioxide so it accelerates the warming releasing more methane.

5.The earth's temperature will run out of control and eventually it may become completely uninhabitable. At minimum disease, starvation, deadly heat, sea level rise will destroy any semblance of the life we have today

6. Is there an alternative?

7. Yes. Fully implement a practical version of the green new deal. If done soon enough and carefully enough it could return the planet to life as it was 20 years ago while increasing prosperity and coastal property values.

8. History will judge us by which direction we take.

"The president’s advisers amplify his disregard. At the meeting of the eight-nation Arctic Council this month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dismayed fellow diplomats by describing the rapidly warming region as a land of “opportunity and abundance” because of its untapped reserves of oil, gas, uranium, gold, fish and rare-earth minerals. The melting sea ice, he said, was opening up new shipping routes. “That is one of the most crude messages one could deliver,” said R. Nicholas Burns, who served as the NATO ambassador under George W. Bush.

"Outside the United States, climate scientists had long given up on the White House being anything but on outlier in policy. But they worry about the loss of the American government as a source for reliable climate research. “It is very unfortunate and potentially even quite damaging that the Trump administration behaves this way,” said Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “There is this arrogance and disrespect for scientific advancement — this very demoralizing lack of respect for your own experts and agencies.”

LIGHTNING STRIKES A supercell thunderstorm strikes in South Dakota. Among the most severe storms, supercells can bring strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes. (See more extreme weather pictures.) PHOTOGRAPH BY JIM REED, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

In this June 4, 2017, photograph, Pakistani people bathe in a canal to beat the heat and get some relief from the extremely hot weather during the eighth day of Ramadan. Maximum temperatures of 116.6 degrees Fahrenheit (47 degrees Celsius) have been recorded in Lahore, Pakistan. PHOTOGRAPH BY RANA SAJID HUSSAIN, PACIFIC PRESS, LIGHTROCKET, GETTY I

LIGHTNING STRIKES A supercell thunderstorm strikes in South Dakota. Among the most severe storms, supercells can bring strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes. (See more extreme weather pictures.) PHOTOGRAPH BY JIM REED, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC In this photograph from August 9, 2010, people rest on the Manezhaya Square just outside the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia. In 2010, the Russian capital became engulfed by poisonous smog from wildfires and a sweltering heat wave that killed some 55,000 people across western Russia. PHOTOGRAPH BY IVAN SEKRETAREV, ASSOIATED PRESS In this June 4, 2017, photograph, Pakistani people bathe in a canal to beat the heat and get some relief from the extremely hot weather during the eighth day of Ramadan. Maximum temperatures of 116.6 degrees Fahrenheit (47 degrees Celsius) have been recorded in Lahore, Pakistan. PHOTOGRAPH BY RANA SAJID HUSSAIN, PACIFIC PRESS, LIGHTROCKET, GETTY IMAGES
Powered by SmugMug Log In