HEAT STROKE - John Wawrzonek
VII. HOW HOT CAN IT GET?

A NEW STUDY HAS FOUND that 30 percent of the world’s population is currently exposed to potentially deadly heat for 20 days per year or more—and like a growing forest fire, climate change is spreading this extreme heat.

WITHOUT MAJOR REDUCTIONS in emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2, up to three in four people will face the threat of dying from heat by 2100. However, even with reductions, one in two people at the end of the century will likely face at least 20 days when extreme heat can kill, according to the analysis, published in Nature Climate.

IT IS REALLY IMPORTANT to understand what the graphs below mean. For example it shows (green curve) that the temperature might rise by 5°C in 2100. So you might think that a larger air conditioner might do the job. No. It won't. Why?

First, the heat energy doesn't all go equaly to all parts of the planet and that leads it to concentrate in certain areas and then maximum temperatures rise higher. Second, it can add to the energy of disturbances such as hurricanes and other storms. And third, it can cause unpredictable and damaging weather events to occur.

SIMPLIFIED PROJECTIONS

THE EARTH'S CLIMATE is phenominaly complex, to the point that when all the components are combined there is an "averaging effect." One way of taking advantage of this, if the actual temperature data is reasonaly well behaved, is to use a mathamatatical model to extrapolate the existing data either by curve fitting or by using a model that best fits the data.

THE BOLD RED WAVY LINE that extends from 1860 to 2017 is actual temperature data from NASA. It has some random bumps in the earlier years but when carbon forcing begins to take effect there is a hint of curving upward. Accordingly I used a simple exponential with several modifications to create the green curve. I then used a polynominal trend-line function with 3 or 4 terms to create the two dashed lines. The curves are a good match to predictions made by other more sophisticated methods.

IT IS IMPORTANT to understand what the graph below means. For example it shows (green curve) that the temperature might rise by 5°C in 2100. So you might think that a larger air conditioner might do the job. No. It won't. Why? It is beyond the crucial tripping point of 2°C and the curve shows the possibility of further increases if we don't drastically suppress carbon emissions AND don't draw down the carbon we have already put into the atmosphere. And the green curve is not the worst case.

If we really fail to do what is necessary to reduce carbon in the atmosphere, it is impossible to predict what might happen.

EARTH TEMPERATURE 9.xlsx
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