UPDATESG6 CANADA 6/9/18NEW YORKER TANGIER ISLAND
HOWEVER, NUMBERS OF ARTICLES AND PAPERS do look ahead at longer time-frames. In particular Rob Wilder and Dan Kammen take the long view in their on-line opinion piece in YaleEnvironment360 in a commentary dated September 12, 2017. Their focus is on situations in which emissions stay approximately on their current path for several decades. This is not very different from the position I take, except they lean in the pessimistic direction as a result of observations of what is happening at the time they wrote this piece.
Climate change projections often focus on 2100. But the geological record shows that unless we rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we will be locking in drastic increases in temperatures and sea levels that will alter the earth not just for centuries, but for millennia.
Long-term global mean sea-level change for the past 20,000 years (black line) and projections for the next 10,000 years, based on four possible carbon emission scenarios (1,280, 2,560, 3,840, and 5,120 gigatons). The illustration shows current and projected ice sheet extent on Greenland and Antarctica. CLARK ET AL. 2017.